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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
THE ECB BLOG
23 December 2025
50 years of central bank independence
Are independent central banks better at ensuring price stability? A study of 155 central banks over 50 years shows why independence matters. Central banks that are shielded from government control are more credible and better at keeping inflation at target.
Read The ECB Blog
PODCAST
22 December 2025
Love at second sight?
The euro family is growing. Bulgaria is gearing up to adopt the euro. What hopes and fears come with the transition? Were there similar feelings in other countries before adopting the euro?
Our host Stefania Secola speaks with ECB researcher Ferdinand Dreher to find out.
Listen to the latest episode of The ECB Podcast
EVENT
23 December 2025
Upcoming illumination of main building
From 31 December to 11 January the ECB’s main building will be illuminated every night from 17:30 CET to mark Bulgaria’s accession to the euro area. Join us in celebrating this important milestone.
- 19 December 2025
- Lecture by Mr Lane at Economics Winter Workshop organised by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland
- 19 December 2025
- Contribution by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to a roundtable at Aspen Institute Italia
- 18 December 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 18 December 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 18 December 2025
- 11 December 2025
- Presentation slides by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECB press briefing on the publication of the Report by the ECB High-Level Task Force on SimplificationRelated
- 11 December 2025
- 8 December 2025
- Guest lecture by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
- 8 December 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Mark Schrörs on 3 December 2025
- 4 December 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Takerou Minami on 26 November 2025
- 1 December 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Pablo Allendesalazar
- 11 November 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 4 November 2025
- 10 November 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Luís Reis Ribeiro
- 23 December 2025
- Are independent central banks better at ensuring price stability? A study of 155 central banks over 50 years shows why independence makes a difference. Central banks that are shielded from government control are able to pursue more credible monetary policies and are therefore better at keeping inflation at target.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 9 December 2025
- The ECB plans to prepare for the potential issuance of the digital euro by 2029, assuming the European co-legislators adopt the necessary regulation by 2026. Preparatory steps, including pilot exercises and initial transactions, could begin as early as mid-2027.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 28 November 2025
- Geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine have shaken Europe’s economies. Understanding the economic impact of such shocks is crucial for monetary policy. This ECB Blog post presents a news-based indicator that tracks country-level geopolitical risk.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 20 November 2025
- To bridge Europe’s investment gap, we need both public and private funding. Well-designed EU investment programmes can act as a major catalyst for private capital. As this blog post shows, every euro invested by the EU is matched by private finance, thereby doubling its impact.Details
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
- 19 November 2025
- Our 2025 macroprudential stress test report shows that banks are resilient. But when we look at risks not included in the EU-wide stress test, we see some pockets of vulnerability. These findings support a cautious approach to capital buffers.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 22 December 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 22 December 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 138Details
- Abstract
- Based on a series of novel experiments fielded within the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, we provide evidence on the attitudes of euro area consumers towards a possible central bank digital currency (CBDC). We document substantial socio‑demographic heterogeneity in consumers’ awareness and willingness to adopt a CBDC. According to survey responses, a sizeable share of around 45% of households would be interested in potentially adopting this new asset. In a scenario where a CBDC is introduced in the euro area, consumers would allocate on average a moderate fraction of a positive wealth shock to such a new asset. Holding limits in the range of €3,000 to €10,000 would in normal times not result in significant disintermediation in the banking system. According to the survey responses, effective communication of the CBDC’s key features could increase the propensity of its adoption by consumers, but this would tend to be short-lived.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
G51 : Financial Economics
- 19 December 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. No. 29Details
- Abstract
- We develop a framework underscoring the importance of incorporating natural capital into growth models and policy discussions, recognizing its role as a productive input and as a sourceof enjoyment. Both firms and the government face the trade-off between exploitation and conservation and can (but do not have to) engage in costly conservation. Firms optimally conserve natural capital to support future production but underinvest compared to the social optimum. Public conservation complements private action, shifting focus from current consumption to future growth. Unique region-level data on the biodiversity of the forest in 582 regions across 44 countries confirm the main empirical predictions of the model.
- JEL Code
- N5 : Economic History→Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 18 December 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 18 December 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 15 December 2025
- EBA/ECB REPORT
- 12 December 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 11 December 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 10 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3165Details
- Abstract
- We study how financial integration shapes the transmission of monetary policy to consumer prices and output in the euro area. Using local projections, we document that the effect of financial integration is continuous: greater integration systematically strengthens the pass-through of monetary policy. When integration falls to low levels—around the first quartile of its historical distribution— transmission to both prices and output becomes statistically and economically insignificant. The amplification pattern is pervasive across member states and more pronounced in peripheral economies. These results show that financial integration is a key determinant of monetary policy effectiveness within the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 9 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3164Details
- Abstract
- This study examines how euro area banks factor pollution-induced biodiversity risks into lending decisions, using data from 832 banks and 5,000 major polluters. Our results show that banks are increasingly pricing these risks by adjusting loan-to-value ratios and interest rates. Banks adjust lending conditions in line with EU pollution and biodiversity protection legislation, particularly for companies with large pollution footprints near biodiversity-protected areas or those contributing to Environmental Quality Standards failures of downstream surface waters. The former is driven primarily by banks’ adoption of biodiversity policies and public commitments to the Equator Principles, while the latter is a result of regulatory risks. Our findings inform financial supervisors on how banks manage risks associated with the EU’s zero pollution ambition, shed light on the interplay between biodiversity protection legislation and banks’ lending decisions, and offer actionable guidance on leveraging existing regulatory frameworks to address the climate-biodiversity-pollution nexus.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 9 December 2025
- EURO AREA QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS - QUALITY REPORT
- 8 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3163Details
- Abstract
- This study examines the effect of systematic household misestimation of home prices on financial decisions, including stockholdings, consumption, and asset allocation. Using exogenous variation in house values, mortgage debt, and homeowner misestimation identified through differences in local housing market characteristics, we find that a $60,000 increase in house overvaluation (approximately one standard deviation) results in a 1.1 to 1.9 percent decrease in risky stockholdings, a 1.5 to 4.3 percent increase in consumption, and a 1.3 to 2.5 percent increase in the share of risk-free assets over liquid wealth. The results highlight the need to better understand how housing wealth and beliefs about house values affect portfolio choice, spending, and overall household finance.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D91 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice→Intertemporal Household Choice, Life Cycle Models and Saving
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
C61 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Optimization Techniques, Programming Models, Dynamic Analysis
- 8 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3162Details
- Abstract
- Can rising asset prices reduce wealth inequality? This paper builds a continuous-time heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium in which entrepreneurs hold risky private capital and traditional savers hold safe assets. Safe-asset expansions—via financial innovation, public debt, or a stable equity bubble—operate through a single pass-through: they lower entrepreneurs’ undiversified risk exposure, compress risk premia, and raise the interest rate. This slows entrepreneurial wealth accumulation and redistributes wealth toward traditional savers, so inequality falls even as risky asset valuations rise. Savers gain unambiguously. Entrepreneurs’ welfare is state-dependent: when their wealth share is low, they prefer a higher risk premium and lose from safe-asset expansions; once sufficiently wealthy, they prefer a higher interest rate that protects a larger wealth base and gain.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 5 December 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 4 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3161Details
- Abstract
- We employ 68 quarters of data – including from non-public supervisory sources – to study how 17 US and 17 euro-area banks balance the risk of breaching regulatory requirements against the cost of maintaining and speedily restoring “management” buffers. We find that steady-state management buffer targets systematically declined and regulatory risk tolerance (RRT) rose following the Great Financial Crisis, especially at banks experiencing a stronger increase in capital requirements. As a sign that RRT is a conscious choice, banks facing more volatile management buffer shocks set higher management buffer targets. High-RRT banks tend to respond to a depletion of their management buffers by cutting lending, whereas low-RRT banks reduce the riskiness but not the volume of their assets — thus highlighting real-economy effects of capital management strategies.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
- 3 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3160Details
- Abstract
- Using a novel macro-finance model we infer jointly the equilibrium real interest rate r*, trend inflation, interest rate expectations, and bond risk premia for the United States. In the model r* plays a dual macro-finance role: as the benchmark real interest rate that closes the output gap and as the time-varying long-run real interest rate that determines the level of the yield curve. Our estimated r* declines over the last decade, with estimation uncertainty being relatively contained. We show that both macro and financial information is important to infer r*. Accounting for the secular decline in interest rates renders term premia more stable than those based on stationary yield curve models. A previous version of this paper by the same authors entitled “Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality” has been published as ECB Working Paper No 2612.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
Ir-rati tal-imgħax
| Faċilità tad-depożitu | 2.00 % |
| Operazzjonijiet ewlenija ta’ rifinanzjament (rata fissa) | 2.15 % |
| Faċilità tas-self marġinali | 2.40 % |
Rata tal-inflazzjoni
Aktar dwar l-inflazzjoniRati tal-kambju
| USD | US dollar | 1.1745 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 184.77 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87420 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9316 |
Stabbiltà finanzjarja
Il-kompiti tagħna Qafas istituzzjonali Analiżi tal-Istabbiltà finanzjarja Miżuri ta’ politika makroprudenzjaliOperazzjonijiet tas-suq
Operazzjoni tas-suq miftuħ Programm ta' xiri ta' assi Self ta’ investimenti PSPPM’INTIX ESPERT? IĊĊEKKJA L-ISPJEGAZZJONI TAGĦNA
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